Nicaragua and Honduras have joined Hugo Chavez’s trade bloc, ALBA, and his subsidized oil program, Petrocaribe. Daniel Ortega and Manuel Zelaya, however, did not ride to power on a wave of popular disgust with traditional politicians. That’s how Chavez, Evo Morales and Rafael Correa won. Ortega and, apparently, Zelaya would still like to be forever presidents.

– In 2006, Ortega won the presidency thanks to el pacto, the nefarious agreement between him and Liberal caudillo, Arnoldo Aleman, to control Nicaragua’s political institutions. Aleman acceded to lower the threshold for a second electoral round, which Ortega met easily. Had the Liberals not divided, Ortega would have netted another defeat. Now el pacto has yielded a new back-room deal. In exchange for having his criminal record expunged and house arrest ended, Aleman has recognized the tainted November 2008 municipal elections.

-In 2005, the Liberal Party’s Manuel Zelaya won the tightest presidential race in the Honduras’ history. Now he’s seeking a new constitution by questionable means. On June 28 a referendum is scheduled on whether to put a constitutional convention on the ballot in November’s presidential election. Zelaya’s machinations have wreaked havoc in the Liberal Party. If the electoral calendar proceeds normally, the center-right National Party is favored to win. Ordinary Hondurans seem baffled by it all.

-Guatemala is in the sorriest state. In May, the assassination of Rodrigo Rosenberg, a prominent lawyer, opened a hornet’s nest. Rosenberg had taped a video that starts by him saying, “If you’re watching this, I’m dead,” and continues by accusing the center-left president, Alvaro Colom, his wife and closest associates of his murder. Webs of corruption, violence and impunity have long ensnared Guatemala. Narcotraffickers have burrowed their way into political influence. Judicial and law-enforcement institutions are compromised. Colom – a well-meaning, if inept, president – accuses the opposition of conspiracy; the opposition demands his resignation. A U.N.-sponsored Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala is investigating the Rosenberg case.

Surprisingly, Costa Rica and El Salvador face rather similar crossroads.

-In 2006, Oscar Arias of the National Liberation Party returned to the presidency by a hair’s breadth. His margin over Otton Solis of the Citizen Action Party (PAC) was just over 1 percent. Founded in 2000, PAC has risen on the citizenry’s discontent, especially with DR-CAFTA, the U.S., Central American and Dominican free-trade agreement. In a 2007 referendum on DR-CAFTA, 51 percent said Yes, 48 percent said No. In 2010, Solis will face PLN’s Laura Chinchilla. A Solis victory would seal the transformation of Costa Rica’s two-party system.

The centrist PLN would then be flanked on the left by PAC, not on the right by a Christian Democratic party.

-On June 1, Mauricio Funes of the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) assumed El Salvador’s presidency. Funes beat ARENA’s candidate by three percentage points. Since 1989, ARENA, the National Republican Alliance – a rightist party – had ruled the country as the bulwark against the FMLN, former guerrillas turned political party. Funes, however, did not participate in the 1980s civil war, praised Brazil’s Lula rather than Chavez and pledged support for DR-CAFTA. He must now balance the FMLN’s orthodoxy with the moderation of Friends of Mauricio, an ad hoc group that supported his campaign. Should he succeed, El Salvador would consolidate a two-party system, one in which ARENA learns the opposition’s ropes until it regains the presidency.

Politics as usual in Nicaragua and Honduras may yet thwart Ortega and Zelaya. Aleman’s Liberals may not so easily accede to Ortega’s shenanigans for a forever presidency. Zelaya’s opposition seems in relatively good shape, plus overturning the electoral calendar would throw Honduras into chaos.

In Guatemala, we shouldn’t expect to see light at the tunnel’s end anytime soon. In the meantime, Colom’s weakened presidency stands by helplessly.

If the pieces fall in place, Costa Rica and El Salvador do offer rays of hope.

As it happens, politics is hardly ever boring.

By MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE
McClatchy Newspapers